MAC-10
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.40
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $1.24 from 52 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.22%
139K openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/321, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $1.40 | 88.90% | 52 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.40 | 89.13% | 52 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 0.1%covert 0.0%mil spec 11.1%classified 2.2%#4b69ff 16.4%restricted 12.2%#8847ff 20.4%Legendary 0.7%milspec 1.1%Rare 1.3%industrial 26.4%#87c7ff 8.0%best hit $206 (146.8x)