AUG
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
88.84%
EV $2.67 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.17%
7,585 openings, odds method
Variance
21.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,602 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/326, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $3.00 | 88.84% | 49 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 88.97% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%mil spec 3.8%restricted 5.7%classified 7.0%Rare 2.4%Restricted 0.2%pink 0.2%violet 0.3%#d32ee6 2.5%Legendary 2.7%milspec 3.9%#d32ce6 0.5%#87c7ff 14.6%#8847ff 6.7%#4b69ff 17.0%Mythical 3.2%consumer 29.2%best hit $513 (171.2x)