M4A1-S

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$5.00

Advertised RTP

88.83%

EV $4.44 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.26%

15.6K openings, odds method

Variance

8.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.77%±11.942,234 openings

7 days

86.61%±4.9812.9K openings

30 days

88.26%±4.5315.6K openings

since tracking started

88.26%±4.5315.6K openings

72.0%84.7%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,234	84.77%±11.9	−0.7σ	odds
7d	12.9K	86.61%±4.98	−0.9σ	odds
30d	15.6K	88.26%±4.53	−0.3σ	odds
All	15.6K	88.26%±4.53	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$2,808	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$1,314	0.6%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$797	0.5%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$451	0.5%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$208	0.5%	1	1.7	0.58×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$197	0.5%	1	1.7	0.58×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$196	0.5%	1	1.7	0.58×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$132	0.5%	4	2.7	1.50×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$129	0.5%	2	2.7	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$127	0.5%	2	2.7	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$126	0.5%	6	2.7	2.25×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$123	0.5%	1	2.8	0.35×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$119	0.5%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$70.36	0.5%	9	4.9	1.85×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$57.97	0.5%	4	6.0	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 126	$34.25	6.1%	81	124.0	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 105	$28.57	6.1%	141	148.6	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 73	$19.93	6.1%	172	213.1	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 71	$19.29	6.1%	208	220.2	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$13.70	6.1%	341	310.1	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$12.28	6.1%	309	346.0	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$11.84	6.1%	324	358.8	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$10.93	6.1%	360	388.7	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$8.37	7.4%	519	612.8	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$8.04	7.4%	520	637.9	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$7.49	7.4%	681	684.7	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$5.45	7.4%	899	941.1	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 52	$4.46	1.9%	343	301.9	1.14×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$4.46	1.9%	552	301.9	1.83×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$1.74	1.9%	737	774.1	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 18	$1.52	1.9%	841	886.1	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$1.10	1.9%	1,194	1224.4	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$0.69	1.4%	1,516	1437.5	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	13.8%	$0.46	1.4%	2,188	2156.2	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	22.7%	$0.28	1.4%	3,702	3558.8	1.04×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/33, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedruciqq skins.army$5.00$797159.4x1d

M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMłody Clacson$5.00$593118.5x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedzamil$5.00$13.702.74x15s

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedkamiladamczak07$5.00$10.932.19x15s

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedIgorOFICJALNIE$5.00$10.932.19x1m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffCiupapi MunianioCase.Gift$5.00$1.740.35x1m

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grademichall0032$5.00$1.520.30x1m

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army$5.00$1.520.30x5m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$5.00$0.690.14x5m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink𝓚𝓪𝓻𝓵𝓲𝓽𝓸𝓼$5.00$12.282.46x5m

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$5.00$0.280.06x5m

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPulek$5.00$0.460.09x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.83%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 19:45 UTC	$5.00	88.83%	35
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$5.00	88.99%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 6.0%restricted 24.1%covert 0.2%Ancient 0.0%pink 7.9%industrial 1.4%#8847ff 10.8%Mythical 13.3%mil spec 6.0%blue 1.9%Mil Spec Grade 5.7%Uncommon 22.7%best hit $797 (159.4x)