SSG 08
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $2.67 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.00%
12K openings, odds method
Variance
16.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/331, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $3.00 | 88.90% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 88.90% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%#8847ff 11.4%classified 0.8%Classified 0.1%Legendary 0.2%#4b69ff 24.0%mil spec 18.6%Rare 2.6%#d32ce6 0.2%restricted 5.7%#d32ee6 0.2%Restricted 0.4%pink 0.5%violet 0.9%milspec 34.4%best hit $794 (264.7x)