SG 553
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $2.67 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.73%
7,729 openings, odds method
Variance
14.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,743 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/333, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $3.00 | 88.92% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 89.12% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 6.0%#d32ee6 2.9%#4b69ff 34.0%classified 4.3%mil spec 2.4%Rare 9.0%Industrial Grade 0.6%industrial 1.9%#8847ff 8.0%milspec 24.3%violet 1.7%blue 4.8%best hit $316 (105.4x)