UMP-45

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$1.00

Advertised RTP

89.11%

EV $0.89 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.74%

44.6K openings, odds method

Variance

6.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.98%±5.946,902 openings

7 days

88.36%±2.5437.1K openings

30 days

87.74%±2.3144.6K openings

since tracking started

87.74%±2.3144.6K openings

85.0%91.8%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,902	91.98%±5.94	+0.9σ	odds
7d	37.1K	88.36%±2.54	−0.5σ	odds
30d	44.6K	87.74%±2.31	−1.1σ	odds
All	44.6K	87.74%±2.31	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$226	0.8%	1	1.3	0.75×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20,000	$148	0.8%	0	2.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16,667	$111	0.7%	2	2.7	0.75×
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11,111	$78.35	0.8%	6	4.0	1.49×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 4,000	$27.08	0.8%	6	11.2	0.54×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,941	$20.27	0.8%	13	15.2	0.86×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$18.28	0.8%	14	17.0	0.82×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$17.48	0.8%	12	17.4	0.69×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,381	$16.27	0.8%	12	18.8	0.64×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,128	$14.70	0.8%	22	21.0	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 452	$9.95	2.5%	78	98.7	0.79×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 420	$9.23	2.5%	128	106.3	1.20×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 344	$7.57	2.5%	133	130.0	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 344	$7.56	2.5%	136	130.0	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 304	$6.68	2.5%	138	147.0	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 293	$6.46	2.5%	108	152.4	0.71×
UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 279	$6.12	2.5%	177	160.4	1.10×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 248	$5.46	2.5%	172	180.1	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 237	$5.21	2.5%	208	188.6	1.10×
UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 211	$4.63	2.5%	224	212.2	1.06×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 178	$3.92	2.5%	256	250.7	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 153	$3.37	2.5%	305	291.8	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 135	$2.96	2.5%	320	332.0	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$2.12	2.5%	428	463.8	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Indigo (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 93	$2.04	2.5%	451	481.7	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Mechanism (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 42	$1.91	5.1%	1,109	1069.7	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 40	$1.81	5.1%	1,081	1128.6	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.66	5.1%	1,197	1230.5	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 34	$1.55	5.1%	1,327	1317.6	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$1.54	5.1%	1,332	1326.1	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$1.30	5.1%	1,535	1571.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.26	5.1%	1,446	1621.0	0.89×
UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$0.72	2.0%	1,350	1117.0	1.21×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$0.68	2.0%	1,201	1182.7	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Riot (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 34	$0.61	2.0%	1,299	1318.5	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$0.55	2.0%	1,368	1462.4	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 29	$0.52	2.0%	1,462	1546.9	0.95×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$0.48	1.8%	1,538	1526.7	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 26	$0.43	1.8%	1,678	1704.1	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 26	$0.42	1.8%	1,767	1744.8	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$0.38	1.8%	1,814	1928.4	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	41.3%	$0.04	1.9%	18,827	18448.3	1.02×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/337, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classifiedsegfault2$1.00$226226.2x3d

UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.00$111111.1x16h

UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil specAutekk skins.army$1.00$111111.1x2d

UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$1.00$78.3578.35x12h

UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffwolniaczek skins.army$1.00$78.3578.35x21h

UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffkubuś ψ$1.00$78.3578.35x1d

UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffarmane$1.00$78.3578.35x3d

UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffMr.Dictator$1.00$78.3578.35x3d

UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffJuzioq skins.army$1.00$78.3578.35x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.00$2.122.12x22s

UMP-45 | Mechanism (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ffDomin_skins.army$1.00$1.911.91x22s

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777Henryk Kobździej$1.00$0.040.04x49s

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restrictedByczek$1.00$1.661.66x49s

UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violetLight skins.army$1.00$1.301.30x49s

UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777skins.army foogy$1.00$0.040.04x49s

UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violetCharakterny skins.army$1.00$1.301.30x1m

UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffBlesscammers$1.00$0.610.61x1m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffskins.army foogy$1.00$2.962.96x1m

UMP-45 | Mechanism (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff$1.00$1.911.91x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.11%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
5 Nov, 18:07 UTC	$1.00	89.11%	42
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$1.00	88.82%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 2.9%classified 0.3%#8847ff 6.8%mil spec 7.2%#4b69ff 15.3%#d32ee6 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 11.0%Mil Spec 3.8%Legendary 0.4%violet 6.9%Restricted 0.6%#777777 42.4%#87c7ff 2.4%best hit $226 (226.2x)