USP-S
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.20
Advertised RTP
89.00%
EV $1.96 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.99%
72.8K openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/35, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $2.20 | 89.00% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $2.20 | 88.76% | 27 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 1.7%covert 0.1%restricted 4.4%classified 7.1%mil spec 29.1%industrial 34.8%#4b69ff 4.9%Rare 7.0%violet 4.5%#8847ff 4.6%Restricted 1.9%best hit $135 (61.46x)