RICH

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$14.00
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $12.45 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.36%
5,192 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
80.03%±9.39896 openings
7 days
87.02%±4.204,489 openings
30 days
86.36%±3.905,192 openings
since tracking started
86.36%±3.905,192 openings
70.0%81.0%92.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h89680.03%±9.39−1.8σodds
7d4,48987.02%±4.20−0.9σodds
30d5,19286.36%±3.90−1.3σodds
All5,19286.36%±3.90−1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,203 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/36, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC$14.0088.90%15
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%#ffd700 2.3%classified 69.2%restricted 7.4%#87c7ff 20.1%best hit —