FOREST
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.70
Advertised RTP
88.89%
EV $2.40 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.60%
23.3K openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/38, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $2.70 | 88.89% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $2.70 | 88.85% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 11.8%#d32ee6 0.5%pink 0.5%restricted 8.1%violet 8.6%#8847ff 8.1%#4b69ff 40.1%Mythical 1.6%mil spec 3.8%Uncommon 16.7%best hit $152 (56.28x)