Petrol

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$33.40

Advertised RTP

86.39%

EV $28.86 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.89%

721 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86 openings · below min

7 days

79.69%±7.79652 openings

30 days

79.89%±7.41721 openings

since tracking started

79.89%±7.41721 openings

51.5%73.5%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	86	73.46%±21.5	—	odds
7d	652	79.69%±7.79	−1.7σ	odds
30d	721	79.89%±7.41	−1.7σ	odds
All	721	79.89%±7.41	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 724 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$97.53	16.9%	31	36.2	0.86×
USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$90.00	15.6%	36	36.2	0.99×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$83.15	14.4%	32	36.2	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$78.36	13.6%	31	36.2	0.86×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$68.63	11.9%	39	36.2	1.08×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$46.78	8.1%	30	36.2	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$26.53	4.6%	34	36.2	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$25.52	4.4%	37	36.2	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$18.79	3.3%	28	36.2	0.77×
FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$14.91	2.6%	32	36.2	0.88×
FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$10.66	1.8%	38	36.2	1.05×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$5.34	0.9%	32	36.2	0.88×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$2.63	0.5%	41	36.2	1.13×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$1.72	0.3%	43	36.2	1.19×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$1.63	0.3%	33	36.2	0.91×
Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$1.61	0.3%	39	36.2	1.08×
Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$1.19	0.2%	37	36.2	1.02×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.96	0.2%	44	36.2	1.22×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.81	0.1%	41	36.2	1.13×
CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 20	$0.36	0.1%	46	36.2	1.27×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/383, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$33.40$90.002.69x20m

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrialDeathstrike$33.40$68.632.05x20m

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue$33.40$1.630.05x52m

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedponton$33.40$26.530.79x52m

Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$33.40$0.810.02x1h

FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specุุุszymek$33.40$14.910.45x1h

Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$33.40$0.810.02x2h

USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare$33.40$1.720.05x2h

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialSkipper♿$33.40$5.340.16x2h

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrialmefiumefiu20skins.army$33.40$68.632.05x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$33.40	86.39%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 30.0%restricted 15.0%classified 15.0%industrial 10.0%#8847ff 5.0%Rare 5.0%blue 5.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%#87c7ff 5.0%best hit —