SWIPE
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$0.70
Advertised RTP
88.99%
EV $0.62 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.96%
237K openings, odds method
Variance
9.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/39, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.70 | 88.99% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.1%#8847ff 4.3%#4b69ff 34.4%mil spec 4.0%restricted 7.6%Rare 28.9%Uncommon 20.7%best hit $146 (208.7x)