Analogy
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$4.00
Advertised RTP
85.79%
EV $3.43 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.75%
7,556 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,568 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/390, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.79%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 85.79% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRare 15.0%restricted 25.0%pink 10.0%#8847ff 15.0%classified 5.0%milspec 5.0%mil spec 15.0%violet 5.0%#4b69ff 5.0%best hit —