Fast Attack

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
88.85%
EV $2.67 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.44%
22.4K openings, odds method
Variance
16.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.80%±13.313,676 openings
7 days
94.73%±5.8118.2K openings
30 days
92.44%±5.1822.4K openings
since tracking started
92.44%±5.1822.4K openings
77.0%91.0%105.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3,67690.80%±13.3+0.3σodds
7d18.2K94.73%±5.81+2.0σodds
30d22.4K92.44%±5.18+1.3σodds
All22.4K92.44%±5.18+1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$5513.7%44.00.99×
Negev | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 4,167$4103.7%75.41.30×
MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,564$2543.7%98.71.03×
UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 752$75.163.8%2929.80.97×
Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 714$71.613.8%2231.40.70×
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 336$33.633.8%5766.80.85×
Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 515$29.822.2%3843.50.87×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 490$28.392.2%5245.71.14×
P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 461$26.712.2%6048.61.23×
P90 | Death Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 437$25.232.2%5451.31.05×
Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted1 in 385$22.242.2%6658.31.13×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 292$16.892.2%7276.90.94×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 292$16.872.2%9076.91.17×
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 277$16.042.2%7280.90.89×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 248$14.372.2%14090.31.55×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 242$13.992.2%9392.81.00×
Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 228$13.232.2%10398.21.05×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 221$12.772.2%106101.61.04×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 200$11.562.2%115112.31.02×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 159$9.242.2%137140.60.97×
MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 133$7.712.2%174168.41.03×
MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 132$7.672.2%184169.31.09×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 128$7.412.2%176175.11.01×
Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 126$7.302.2%173177.80.97×
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 109$6.302.2%368206.01.79×
Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 39$6.045.9%587582.21.01×
MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 38$5.945.9%403591.90.68×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$5.145.9%647684.00.95×
AWP | Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 27$4.205.9%808837.10.97×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 21$3.375.9%9821043.40.94×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce61 in 21$3.325.9%9441059.10.89×
AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer69.0%$0.041.0%15,64715460.61.01×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/391, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.85%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 13:17 UTC$3.0088.85%32
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$3.0088.97%32
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 2.6%#4b69ff 0.0%classified 10.1%mil spec 0.3%#d32ee6 1.3%violet 4.0%Restricted 0.3%Legendary 3.1%pink 4.7%#d32ce6 4.7%consumer 69.0%best hit $755 (251.7x)