Opportunity

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$1.80

Advertised RTP

88.91%

EV $1.60 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.05%

38.4K openings, odds method

Variance

9.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.23%±7.795,857 openings

7 days

87.80%±3.3632.4K openings

30 days

87.05%±3.0938.4K openings

since tracking started

87.05%±3.0938.4K openings

77.0%85.3%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,857	85.23%±7.79	−0.9σ	odds
7d	32.4K	87.80%±3.36	−0.6σ	odds
30d	38.4K	87.05%±3.09	−1.2σ	odds
All	38.4K	87.05%±3.09	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$418	1.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$353	1.3%	2	2.3	0.87×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 8,333	$182	1.4%	3	4.6	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,000	$109	1.4%	5	7.7	0.65×
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,818	$38.62	1.3%	13	21.1	0.62×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$35.63	1.3%	20	23.1	0.87×
USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,449	$31.16	1.3%	20	26.5	0.75×
P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 266	$14.33	3.4%	137	144.5	0.95×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 249	$13.43	3.4%	61	154.1	0.40×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 246	$13.26	3.4%	142	156.0	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 175	$9.39	3.4%	203	220.2	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 164	$8.86	3.4%	160	233.7	0.68×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 131	$7.06	3.4%	237	293.2	0.81×
FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$7.00	3.4%	325	295.5	1.10×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$6.49	3.4%	228	319.0	0.71×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 95	$5.13	3.4%	368	403.5	0.91×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 89	$4.81	3.4%	467	430.1	1.09×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 87	$4.71	3.4%	475	439.3	1.08×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$4.21	3.4%	487	491.5	0.99×
XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$4.04	3.4%	461	512.3	0.90×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$3.86	7.5%	1,035	1202.9	0.86×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$3.67	7.5%	1,245	1265.2	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$3.14	7.5%	1,184	1478.9	0.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$2.73	7.5%	1,974	1701.0	1.16×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$2.73	7.5%	1,559	1701.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$2.01	7.6%	2,118	2310.5	0.92×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	64.0%	$0.04	1.6%	24,137	24592.3	0.98×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/395, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covertLxB I DziQ$1.80$389216.2x3d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covertAdolf$1.80$389216.2x4d

★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.80$196108.8x3d

★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covertAndrzej_PL$1.80$196108.8x3d

★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.80$196108.8x3d

M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · MythicalTony$1.80$181100.4x3d

M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$1.80$181100.4x5d

M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$1.80$10960.79x55m

M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$1.80$10960.79x20h

M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · MythicalBocian.skins.army$1.80$10960.79x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.80$0.040.02x59s

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer𝕊𝕖𝕟𝕤𝕖𝕚 𝕎$1.80$0.040.02x59s

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerIroo$1.80$0.040.02x2m

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer.......... skins.army$1.80$0.040.02x2m

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.80$0.040.02x2m

SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$1.80$4.812.67x2m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedBetterThanYourSister$1.80$3.672.04x2m

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$1.80$0.040.02x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 21:11 UTC	$1.80	88.91%	27
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$1.80	88.87%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Mythical 0.6%mil spec 0.1%classified 1.2%#d32ce6 0.4%Rare 0.4%pink 1.7%#d32ee6 0.6%blue 0.8%restricted 16.3%Legendary 2.2%violet 1.3%#4b69ff 10.4%consumer 64.0%best hit $389 (216.2x)