Ridiculous
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
88.83%
EV $0.89 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.75%
54.1K openings, odds method
Variance
14.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/397, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.00 | 88.83% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.00 | 88.96% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedconsumer 78.0%mil spec 3.4%restricted 6.3%Restricted 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%violet 2.0%#d32ee6 0.2%industrial 1.1%#777777 0.8%#4b69ff 3.5%#8847ff 1.3%#87c7ff 1.7%Rare 1.7%best hit $179 (178.6x)