SET
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $17.78 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.10%
2,534 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,538 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/40, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $20.00 | 88.90% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $20.00 | 88.89% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 6.2%classified 17.3%covert 10.2%extraordinary 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%rare 0.8%gold 1.7%restricted 12.1%#4b69ff 51.5%best hit $1,530 (76.48x)