EXCLUSIVE

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$28.00

Advertised RTP

88.86%

EV $24.88 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.48%

3,840 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.64%±15.52537 openings

7 days

86.56%±6.413,292 openings

30 days

85.48%±5.983,840 openings

since tracking started

85.48%±5.983,840 openings

70.5%86.8%103.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	537	86.64%±15.5	−0.3σ	odds
7d	3,292	86.56%±6.41	−0.7σ	odds
30d	3,840	85.48%±5.98	−1.1σ	odds
All	3,840	85.48%±5.98	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,868 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$6,497	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 100,000	$5,433	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$1,314	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$1,005	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$992	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 11,111	$665	0.2%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$593	0.3%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,083	$452	0.9%	2	1.9	1.08×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$301	0.9%	1	2.8	0.36×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,235	$265	0.9%	2	3.1	0.64×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,124	$243	0.9%	4	3.4	1.16×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$237	0.9%	4	3.5	1.14×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$227	0.9%	7	3.7	1.90×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 877	$189	0.9%	4	4.4	0.91×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 94	$127	5.4%	43	41.3	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$123	5.4%	43	42.5	1.01×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$123	5.4%	34	42.6	0.80×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 89	$121	5.4%	37	43.5	0.85×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$115	5.4%	48	45.6	1.05×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$108	5.4%	37	48.3	0.77×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$108	5.4%	45	48.5	0.93×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$107	5.4%	41	49.0	0.84×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$89.98	5.4%	51	58.3	0.88×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$89.14	5.4%	57	58.8	0.97×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$53.41	6.1%	78	110.7	0.70×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$44.47	6.1%	96	132.9	0.72×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$41.57	6.1%	143	142.2	1.01×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$38.89	6.1%	116	152.0	0.76×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$33.52	6.1%	165	176.3	0.94×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 127	$24.59	0.8%	69	30.4	2.27×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 125	$24.27	0.8%	100	30.8	3.24×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 35	$6.84	0.8%	115	109.3	1.05×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$4.53	0.8%	172	165.1	1.04×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$3.97	0.8%	218	188.4	1.16×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.21	0.8%	344	338.4	1.02×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$1.96	0.8%	361	381.5	0.95×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.5%	$1.25	0.8%	599	598.3	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	20.9%	$0.96	0.8%	831	809.1	1.03×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/41, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMAJOR$28.00$66823.84x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$28.00$2.210.08x29s

M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertCiupapi MunianioCase.Gift$28.00$89.983.21x29s

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$28.00$6.840.24x9m

USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSteryd3$28.00$24.590.88x9m

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$28.00$44.471.59x9m

UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSteryd3$28.00$1.250.04x9m

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$28.00$89.143.18x12m

M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertSteryd3$28.00$89.983.21x12m

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare$28.00$6.840.24x12m

M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffSteryd3$28.00$0.960.03x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 19:45 UTC	$28.00	88.86%	38
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$28.00	88.86%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 16.5%contraband 0.0%classified 19.2%rare 2.8%restricted 38.4%#eb4b4b 0.2%red 1.1%pink 0.8%#8847ff 20.9%best hit $668 (23.84x)