10% USP-S
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$4.10
Advertised RTP
84.25%
EV $3.45 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.44%
14.2K openings, odds method
Variance
16.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 58
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/425, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $4.10 | 84.25% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.60 | 83.16% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.8%covert 1.4%restricted 1.0%Restricted 0.4%mil spec 1.5%industrial 90.0%best hit $281 (61.07x)