10% M4A1-S
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$9.10
Advertised RTP
84.53%
EV $7.69 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.36%
2,185 openings, odds method
Variance
29.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 58
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,185 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/426, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.53%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $9.10 | 84.53% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.80 | 84.00% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 4.3%covert 2.3%restricted 1.1%pink 1.1%industrial 91.2%best hit $760 (83.48x)