10% AK-47
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$14.10
Advertised RTP
84.29%
EV $11.88 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.94%
2,749 openings, odds method
Variance
34.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 48
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,749 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/427, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $14.10 | 84.29% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $17.40 | 84.15% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.1%classified 3.6%mil spec 0.1%red 0.7%Ancient 0.6%Legendary 0.9%#87c7ff 90.0%best hit $998 (70.78x)