10% M4A4
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$17.10
Advertised RTP
84.19%
EV $14.40 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.95%
776 openings, odds method
Variance
8.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 28
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 776 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 100,000 | $5,451 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20,000 | $1,222 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20,000 | $964 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 10,000 | $604 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 197 | $339 | 11.9% | 8 | 3.9 | 2.03× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $318 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 283 | $204 | 5.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 37 | $192 | 36.1% | 24 | 20.9 | 1.15× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 61 | $109 | 12.4% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× |
| M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 30 | $93.90 | 22.0% | 24 | 26.2 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 72 | $77.58 | 7.5% | 13 | 10.8 | 1.20× |
| M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 90.0% | $0.53 | 3.3% | 696 | 698.4 | 1.00× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/428, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.19%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $17.10 | 84.19% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $22.20 | 84.13% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%classified 1.7%covert 5.0%restricted 0.0%mil spec 93.4%best hit —