Howly Moly

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$34.60

Advertised RTP

84.11%

EV $29.10 from 5 items

Observed RTP, 30d

46.80%

368 openings, odds method

Variance

126.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59 openings · below min

7 days

298 openings · below min

30 days

368 openings · below min

since tracking started

368 openings · below min

-0.5%280.5%561.5%

Small sample. 368 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	59	273.21%±287.4	—	odds
7d	298	56.67%±127.8	—	odds
30d	368	46.80%±114.9	—	odds
All	368	46.80%±114.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 368 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$8,407	2.9%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 204	$5,451	91.8%	1	1.8	0.55×
Howl Pinpin · extraordinary	1 in 50	$43.77	3.0%	4	7.4	0.54×
Patch \| Howlpatch · exotic	1 in 40	$17.18	1.5%	14	9.2	1.52×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	95.0%	$0.26	0.8%	349	349.6	1.00×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/429, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.