10% Asiimov
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$10.80
Advertised RTP
84.53%
EV $9.13 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.87%
4,326 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,326 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $120 | 1.3% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 27 | $94.42 | 38.3% | 166 | 160.1 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 16 | $85.88 | 58.3% | 281 | 268.2 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $0.29 | 0.3% | 401 | 432.6 | 0.93× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon | 25.0% | $0.22 | 0.6% | 1,106 | 1081.5 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 25.0% | $0.21 | 0.6% | 1,094 | 1081.5 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $0.18 | 0.6% | 1,274 | 1297.8 | 0.98× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/45, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.53%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $10.80 | 84.53% | 7 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $12.00 | 84.09% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%industrial 65.0%Uncommon 25.0%best hit —