10% Kill Confirmed
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$8.40
Advertised RTP
84.59%
EV $7.11 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.48%
3,426 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,429 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $242 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,500 | $117 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.92× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 222 | $75.41 | 4.8% | 10 | 15.4 | 0.65× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $66.29 | 4.7% | 19 | 17.1 | 1.11× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 11 | $63.20 | 80.1% | 318 | 308.6 | 1.03× |
| USP-S | Torque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 667 | $1.53 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| USP-S | Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 1,000 | $1.53 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 667 | $1.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $0.81 | 2.3% | 726 | 685.8 | 1.06× |
| USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 69.6% | $0.73 | 7.2% | 2,339 | 2386.6 | 0.98× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/46, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.59%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $8.40 | 84.59% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.30 | 84.16% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%#4b69ff 0.1%mil spec 69.8%blue 20.0%best hit —