Kebabcio

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$3.80
Advertised RTP
88.81%
EV $3.37 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.67%
14.4K openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
94.69%±8.461,888 openings
7 days
88.65%±3.2912.5K openings
30 days
87.67%±3.0714.4K openings
since tracking started
87.67%±3.0714.4K openings
84.0%94.0%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,88894.69%±8.46+1.4σodds
7d12.5K88.65%±3.29−0.1σodds
30d14.4K87.67%±3.07−0.7σodds
All14.4K87.67%±3.07−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 787$82.133.1%1218.30.66×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 694$72.053.1%1620.70.77×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 592$61.463.1%2424.30.99×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 490$51.053.1%3029.31.02×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 450$46.903.1%3331.91.03×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 272$32.093.5%5952.91.11×
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 214$25.203.5%8067.31.19×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 202$23.873.5%6171.00.86×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 195$23.063.5%7573.61.02×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 185$21.843.5%7277.70.93×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 134$15.813.5%118107.31.10×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 128$15.063.5%98112.70.87×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 95$11.213.5%152151.41.00×
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 68$7.993.5%211212.40.99×
CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$7.823.5%212217.00.98×
M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 41$6.865.0%382353.61.08×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 39$6.525.0%383372.01.03×
AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 29$4.935.0%484492.00.98×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 29$4.925.0%511493.01.04×
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 29$4.815.0%498504.30.99×
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 28$4.775.0%527508.51.04×
P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 28$4.715.0%511515.00.99×
SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$4.215.0%526576.10.91×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 24$3.975.0%612611.01.00×
XM1014 | XOXO (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 465$3.720.2%2330.90.74×
P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 457$3.650.2%2231.50.70×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 413$3.310.2%4334.81.24×
USP-S | Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 223$1.780.2%6964.61.07×
P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 184$1.470.2%6378.20.81×
USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 145$1.160.2%10399.21.04×
AWP | Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 139$1.110.2%97103.70.94×
G3SG1 | High Seas (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 119$0.950.2%127121.11.05×
AWP | Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare1 in 112$0.900.2%110127.80.86×
Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 79$0.630.2%186182.61.02×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 65$0.520.2%211221.20.95×
Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 64$0.510.2%204225.60.90×
MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 59$0.470.2%249244.81.02×
AUG | Tom Cat (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 45$0.360.2%309319.50.97×
MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 44$0.350.2%311328.70.95×
FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 21$0.190.3%707700.11.01×
FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 16$0.150.3%887886.91.00×
M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon11.6%$0.080.3%1,7281662.71.04×
Dual Berettas | Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer22.4%$0.040.3%3,2453223.41.01×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/466, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.81%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$3.8088.81%43
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedmil spec 6.0%Legendary 4.3%covert 0.4%classified 4.4%violet 1.9%blue 0.5%#d32ee6 4.2%pink 1.3%#8847ff 10.7%Mil Spec 3.5%restricted 11.5%milspec 0.2%Mythical 0.5%Rare 1.6%industrial 1.7%#4b69ff 13.3%Uncommon 11.6%consumer 22.4%best hit —