Kozielsky
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
88.97%
EV $2.67 from 56 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.19%
10.9K openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/468, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 88.97% | 56 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 4.3%covert 0.1%Legendary 5.1%classified 9.4%mil spec 6.3%red 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 14.2%industrial 23.2%Rare 1.7%#d32ce6 0.4%pink 0.8%#8847ff 4.9%violet 2.8%#4b69ff 18.7%milspec 6.2%Restricted 1.8%best hit $225 (75.00x)