1% Crimson Web
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$8.90
Advertised RTP
84.04%
EV $7.48 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.06%
1,410 openings, odds method
Variance
65.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,413 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100,000 | $6,888 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 25,000 | $1,089 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 625 | $738 | 15.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 2,857 | $707 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 125 | $677 | 72.4% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $1.00 | 1.2% | 132 | 127.2 | 1.04× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.68 | 2.3% | 343 | 353.3 | 0.97× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.43 | 1.7% | 414 | 423.9 | 0.98× |
| R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 35.0% | $0.39 | 1.8% | 510 | 494.6 | 1.03× |
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/47, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 84.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $8.90 | 84.04% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.10 | 84.36% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%#ffd700 0.8%mil spec 99.0%best hit $738 (82.94x)