Ciekavski
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$25.00
Advertised RTP
88.95%
EV $22.24 from 53 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.59%
920 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values53 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 923 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/474, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $25.00 | 88.95% | 53 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $25.00 | 88.83% | 53 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.3%restricted 10.9%#d32ee6 4.0%classified 5.3%red 0.5%Legendary 0.2%epic 0.2%covert knife 0.3%extraordinary 7.0%mil spec 12.1%#ffd700 0.7%Covert 0.7%Ancient 3.6%violet 8.5%#d32ce6 0.8%pink 0.9%#8847ff 13.4%#4b69ff 11.6%blue 12.9%best hit $627 (25.07x)