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A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$30.00
Advertised RTP
88.91%
EV $26.67 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.95%
6,628 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,790 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/49, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $30.00 | 88.91% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $30.00 | 89.04% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 16.4%contraband 0.0%classified 41.4%restricted 37.9%rare 0.0%red 4.2%best hit $992 (33.07x)