Party Mix
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$10.30
Advertised RTP
88.92%
EV $9.16 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.31%
3,668 openings, odds method
Variance
7.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,680 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/51, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $10.30 | 88.92% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $10.30 | 88.87% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%Immortal 0.1%red 0.3%#ffd700 1.4%classified 14.1%mil spec 3.0%restricted 2.1%#d32ee6 1.8%Industrial Grade 2.8%pink 4.2%industrial 0.5%#777777 0.9%#8847ff 16.6%#4b69ff 49.6%best hit $749 (72.70x)