Wronek

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$100.00
Advertised RTP
88.89%
EV $88.89 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.92%
348 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
22 openings · below min
7 days
88.68%±12.25302 openings
30 days
88.92%±11.41348 openings
since tracking started
88.92%±11.41348 openings
54.5%100.5%146.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h22100.54%±45.5—odds
7d30288.68%±12.3−0.0σodds
30d34888.92%±11.4+0.0σodds
All34888.92%±11.4+0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 266$7793.3%01.30.00×
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 226$6623.3%01.50.00×
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 225$6613.3%01.50.00×
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 142$4113.2%12.40.41×
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 115$3313.3%33.00.99×
★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 96$2783.3%23.60.55×
★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 95$2743.2%53.71.36×
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 93$2703.3%23.70.54×
★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 88$2543.3%94.02.27×
★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 83$2413.2%54.21.20×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 73$2113.3%44.80.84×
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 70$2023.2%115.02.21×
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 50$1864.2%46.90.58×
★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 48$1794.2%77.20.97×
AK-47 | First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 47$1734.2%37.50.40×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 45$1674.2%87.71.04×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 39$1454.2%58.90.56×
★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 38$1404.2%119.21.19×
MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 36$1354.2%39.50.31×
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 34$1254.2%510.30.49×
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 33$1234.2%710.50.67×
★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 33$1214.2%810.70.75×
★ Classic Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 105$99.061.1%103.33.03×
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 102$96.051.1%103.42.94×
P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 102$95.771.1%43.41.17×
★ Ursus Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 91$85.241.1%23.80.52×
★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 87$81.961.1%94.02.26×
Tec-9 | Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 87$81.541.1%144.03.49×
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 81$75.781.1%34.30.70×
★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 81$75.771.1%44.30.93×
★ Survival Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 75$70.821.1%34.60.65×
★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 71$66.911.1%94.91.84×
★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd7001 in 69$64.711.1%65.01.19×
★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 58$54.511.1%116.01.83×
AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 56$52.771.1%86.21.29×
P250 | Digital Architect (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 44$41.691.1%127.81.53×
MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 35$32.461.1%610.10.60×
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 34$31.901.1%1310.21.27×
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 34$31.721.1%1310.31.26×
Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 27$25.411.1%1712.91.32×
AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 15$0.980.1%1822.50.80×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 11$0.670.1%3132.90.94×
Galil AR | Connexion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff16.3%$0.410.1%4256.80.74×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/610941, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 05:19 UTC$10088.89%43
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$10088.88%43
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 2.1%covert 22.9%#ffd700 3.2%restricted 21.1%covert knife 6.8%Immortal 1.4%#d32ee6 2.0%pink 2.2%red 2.6%Ancient 3.0%mil spec 1.2%extraordinary 5.9%Rare 9.5%#8847ff 16.3%best hit —