Aspiration
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
89.15%
EV $2.23 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.12%
20.6K openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/611375, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.15%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $2.50 | 89.15% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.95% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 4.6%#d32ce6 8.1%#8847ff 8.8%#4b69ff 67.5%pink 1.2%violet 1.5%Legendary 4.3%Remarkable 1.6%remarkable 2.4%best hit —