Fuse

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price
$25.00
Advertised RTP
89.03%
EV $22.26 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.80%
1,438 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
93.97%±13.45177 openings
7 days
92.13%±5.181,252 openings
30 days
89.80%±4.841,438 openings
since tracking started
89.80%±4.841,438 openings
80.0%94.0%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h17793.97%±13.5+0.7σodds
7d1,25292.13%±5.18+1.2σodds
30d1,43889.80%±4.84+0.4σodds
All1,43889.80%±4.84+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,447 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | RUBINO (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · exotic1 in 251$2394.3%65.81.04×
Sticker | device (Foil) | Cologne 2016sticker · #d32ce61 in 135$1284.3%1510.71.40×
Sticker | North (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · #d32ce61 in 88$83.684.3%1916.41.16×
Sticker | shox (Foil) | Cologne 2016sticker · #d32ce61 in 77$72.884.3%1218.90.64×
Sticker | FaZe Clan (Holo) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #8847ff1 in 76$72.484.3%1419.00.74×
Sticker | WorldEdit (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #d32ce61 in 58$55.174.3%1524.90.60×
Sticker | Avangar (Foil) | Boston 2018sticker · #d32ce61 in 17$40.9811.1%6687.40.76×
Sticker | karrigan (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847ff1 in 13$32.2311.1%156111.11.40×
Sticker | Team Spirit (Foil) | Katowice 2019sticker · exotic1 in 11$27.5811.1%139129.91.07×
Sticker | Fnatic (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #d32ce61 in 11$26.9211.1%130133.00.98×
Sticker | Miami Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable1 in 23$18.903.7%7963.31.25×
Sticker | nex (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847ff1 in 21$17.463.7%6368.60.92×
Sticker | INS (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #d32ce61 in 18$14.783.7%6981.00.85×
Sticker | Countdown (Foil)sticker · exotic1 in 16$13.063.7%14191.71.54×
Sticker | IEM (Foil) | Katowice 2019sticker · #d32ce61 in 14$11.773.7%95101.70.93×
Sticker | Global Elite (Foil)sticker · exotic1 in 11$8.913.7%118134.40.88×
Sticker | Liquid Firesticker · high11.5%$7.213.7%167166.11.01×
Sticker | Emperor (Foil)sticker · pink12.7%$6.833.9%143183.10.78×
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/611681, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 21:11 UTC$25.0089.03%18
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC$25.0088.84%18
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedexotic 25.0%#d32ce6 32.8%#8847ff 13.7%remarkable 4.4%high 11.5%pink 12.7%best hit —