Sunset
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$25.00
Advertised RTP
88.94%
EV $22.24 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.75%
1,371 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,377 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/622, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $25.00 | 88.94% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $25.00 | 88.89% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 0.1%restricted 18.4%covert 7.1%classified 1.1%covert knife 2.0%Restricted 4.3%Rare 23.2%pink 10.2%violet 13.2%mil spec 20.5%best hit $1,982 (79.27x)