BigBaller

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$500.00

Advertised RTP

86.51%

EV $432.53 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.82%

180 openings, odds method

Variance

4.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

85.57%±34.45138 openings

30 days

82.82%±30.17180 openings

since tracking started

82.82%±30.17180 openings

-0.5%187.5%375.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	88.54%±286.2	—	odds
7d	138	85.57%±34.5	−0.1σ	odds
30d	180	82.82%±30.2	−0.2σ	odds
All	180	82.82%±30.2	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 625	$17.5K	6.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 261	$7,303	6.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$3,732	6.5%	2	1.3	1.48×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$2,336	6.5%	3	2.2	1.39×
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable	1 in 80	$2,247	6.5%	2	2.2	0.89×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$2,156	6.5%	5	2.3	2.14×
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$1,991	6.5%	4	2.5	1.58×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 61	$1,699	6.5%	1	3.0	0.34×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$1,313	6.5%	1	3.8	0.26×
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$986	6.3%	8	5.0	1.60×
Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 31	$847	6.3%	6	5.8	1.03×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$789	6.3%	7	6.2	1.12×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 27	$750	6.3%	6	6.6	0.91×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$690	6.3%	4	7.1	0.56×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$543	6.3%	10	9.1	1.10×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 165	$389	0.5%	1	1.1	0.92×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 108	$254	0.5%	1	1.7	0.60×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$77.90	0.5%	5	5.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 16	$38.67	0.5%	7	11.0	0.64×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$35.90	0.5%	12	11.8	1.02×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$33.67	0.5%	10	12.6	0.79×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$28.17	0.6%	19	15.2	1.25×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	35.0%	$0.36	0.0%	66	63.0	1.05×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/626, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$500$3,7327.46x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryku$500$3,7327.46x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$500$2,3364.67x1d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary⭕⃤ Kick/Lookass Cs$500$2,3364.67x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryku$500$2,3364.67x6d

Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015sticker · remarkable$500$2,2474.49x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$500$2,1564.31x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$500$2,1564.31x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertku$500$2,1564.31x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014sticker · high$500$8471.69x19h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6Bylek$500$38.670.08x19h

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$500$28.170.06x1d

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specneexcsgo$500$0.360.00x1d

★ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$500$5431.09x1d

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classifiedneexcsgo$500$7891.58x1d

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$500$33.670.07x1d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covertneexcsgo$500$6901.38x1d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$500$9861.97x1d

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specneexcsgo$500$0.360.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$500	86.51%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.2%extraordinary 4.6%remarkable 1.2%covert 25.4%classified 14.1%high 3.2%gold 3.6%#d32ee6 6.1%restricted 6.6%mil spec 35.0%best hit $3,732 (7.46x)