Saloon
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
85.09%
EV $2.55 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.79%
12.7K openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/646558, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.09%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 85.09% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.0%covert 0.1%classified 2.8%covert knife 0.0%Mythical 15.6%restricted 3.1%Restricted 0.1%#8847ff 43.0%pink 3.0%#d32ee6 2.4%blue 2.5%mil spec 2.6%Mil Spec Grade 2.8%Rare 22.2%best hit —