Lynx
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
88.85%
EV $2.22 from 45 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.15%
30K openings, odds method
Variance
6.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/715001, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $2.50 | 88.85% | 45 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.99% | 45 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%classified 7.4%covert 0.4%Covert 0.1%restricted 11.4%pink 0.3%#d32ee6 1.6%blue 1.8%#8847ff 3.5%Mythical 2.4%uncommon 0.7%violet 0.8%Rare 0.9%#4b69ff 38.1%#d32ce6 1.3%mil spec 1.4%Uncommon 28.0%best hit $191 (76.50x)