Santiago
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$7.77
Advertised RTP
88.90%
EV $6.91 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.64%
6,466 openings, odds method
Variance
20.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 37
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,472 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/753415, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.77 | 88.90% | 21 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.4%contraband 0.0%covert 2.7%#d32ce6 0.2%mil spec 2.9%high 0.0%extraordinary 0.2%blue 2.1%exotic 3.3%industrial 4.6%Mythical 10.5%#4b69ff 73.0%best hit $1,450 (186.6x)