UFO
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$5.00
Advertised RTP
88.82%
EV $4.44 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.10%
10.4K openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/761318, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.82% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.89% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%extraordinary 0.0%classified 11.0%covert knife 0.1%industrial 0.1%restricted 8.3%Ancient 0.5%pink 0.9%mil spec 14.8%#d32ee6 1.0%Rare 8.1%violet 2.5%#4b69ff 52.0%best hit $262 (52.37x)