Fire Serpent
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$275.00
Advertised RTP
86.58%
EV $238.09 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.98%
497 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 497 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/815258, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.58%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $275 | 86.58% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 64.2%extraordinary 3.4%#ffd700 0.2%restricted 8.5%gold 1.9%classified 3.6%covert knife 2.3%mil spec 3.8%Ancient 12.2%best hit $2,718 (9.88x)