Mork

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

Price

$1.50

Advertised RTP

88.88%

EV $1.33 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.85%

64.6K openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.82%±4.868,496 openings

7 days

88.54%±1.9752K openings

30 days

88.85%±1.7664.6K openings

since tracking started

88.85%±1.7664.6K openings

85.5%91.0%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8,496	90.82%±4.86	+0.8σ	odds
7d	52K	88.54%±1.97	−0.3σ	odds
30d	64.6K	88.85%±1.76	−0.0σ	odds
All	64.6K	88.85%±1.76	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$248	0.6%	5	1.9	2.58×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$76.33	0.6%	2	6.5	0.31×
★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$75.34	0.6%	5	6.5	0.77×
★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$74.30	0.6%	7	7.1	0.98×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$59.72	0.6%	8	8.4	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$57.35	0.6%	10	9.1	1.10×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,882	$46.55	0.6%	6	11.0	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,704	$29.76	0.6%	15	17.5	0.86×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,030	$23.95	0.6%	19	21.3	0.89×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$15.49	0.6%	26	33.0	0.79×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 162	$14.15	6.5%	391	398.4	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 153	$13.33	6.5%	431	422.3	1.02×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 142	$12.33	6.5%	461	456.6	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 130	$11.36	6.5%	492	496.1	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 105	$9.15	6.5%	609	615.7	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 88	$7.64	6.5%	723	737.3	0.98×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$4.73	6.5%	1,185	1191.4	0.99×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$4.57	6.5%	1,260	1232.7	1.02×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$4.17	6.5%	1,323	1351.1	0.98×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 74	$3.98	4.1%	886	877.7	1.01×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 71	$3.82	4.1%	952	914.5	1.04×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 71	$3.81	4.0%	910	916.5	0.99×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 52	$2.81	4.1%	1,271	1243.1	1.02×
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$2.44	4.1%	1,461	1431.3	1.02×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$1.30	1.1%	683	696.6	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 62	$0.87	1.0%	1,026	1040.7	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$0.84	1.1%	1,104	1078.2	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 51	$0.72	1.0%	1,265	1257.3	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 23	$0.32	1.1%	2,852	2829.6	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	14.4%	$0.30	3.3%	9,212	9342.6	0.99×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	24.1%	$0.18	3.3%	15,676	15570.3	1.01×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	31.6%	$0.14	3.3%	20,401	20454.7	1.00×

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from g4skins:feed/cases/850585, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert$1.50$248165.4x5d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert$1.50$248165.4x7d

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert$1.50$248165.4x8d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covertWnukW3ndkarza skins.army$1.50$76.3350.89x6d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$1.50$76.3350.89x7d

★ Survival Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covertgKuchta3,skins.army,$1.50$75.3450.23x22h

★ Survival Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.50$75.3450.23x4d

★ Survival Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$1.50$75.3450.23x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$1.50$9.156.10x57s

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$1.50$0.180.12x57s

MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$1.50$0.140.09x57s

AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffskins.armysf$1.50$3.982.65x57s

AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1.50$3.822.55x57s

G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.50$12.338.22x57s

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$1.50$0.180.12x57s

MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffskins.armysf$1.50$0.140.09x57s

CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$1.50$0.300.20x1m

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffcygus$1.50$0.180.12x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$1.50	88.88%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#ffd700 0.0%pink 2.6%#d32ee6 0.0%classified 2.5%Legendary 0.7%restricted 5.7%Mythical 3.1%violet 1.9%#8847ff 5.4%mil spec 1.6%Rare 6.3%#4b69ff 70.1%best hit $248 (165.4x)