Arkadio
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
88.77%
EV $17.75 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.40%
995 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 998 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/884012, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.77%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $20.00 | 88.77% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.7%base 0.0%classified 19.7%restricted 6.6%gold 0.0%#ffd700 0.4%Mythical 0.4%Ancient 0.5%extraordinary 1.5%pink 0.9%Legendary 9.4%industrial 3.8%mil spec 19.7%light blue 26.0%#4b69ff 3.3%best hit $780 (39.01x)