Widow's Web
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$205.00
Advertised RTP
86.51%
EV $177.34 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.07%
23 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 23 openings and 5.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/952534, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $205 | 86.51% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 86.9%Covert 0.0%#ffd700 6.6%Immortal 0.1%legendary 2.7%gold 3.7%best hit $512 (2.50x)