Accept

A case on GGDROP (multicases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
92.07%
EV $1.84 from 148 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.58%
1,910 openings, odds method
Variance
17.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
130.73%±62.64169 openings
7 days
94.51%±21.601,548 openings
30 days
93.58%±19.761,910 openings
since tracking started
93.58%±19.761,910 openings
67.5%130.8%194.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h169130.73%±62.6+1.2σodds
7d1,54894.51%±21.6+0.2σodds
30d1,91093.58%±19.8+0.2σodds
All1,91093.58%±19.8+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values148 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,910 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$4403.8%00.3—
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2801.8%00.2—
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2361.5%00.2—
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$2231.7%00.3—
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$2061.1%10.2—
M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,000$1061.2%00.4—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1010.8%20.3—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$97.891.0%00.4—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$79.100.4%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$67.900.7%10.3—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$61.160.5%00.3—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$61.010.6%00.4—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$58.850.6%00.4—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$51.450.4%00.3—
AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 7,692$48.180.3%10.2—
UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 7,692$45.970.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$40.070.3%00.2—
AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$37.830.3%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 6,667$35.920.3%00.3—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 5,000$34.450.4%00.4—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$34.220.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$33.290.3%00.3—
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$31.920.3%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,143$30.930.2%00.3—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$30.650.3%00.3—
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 8,333$28.340.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 9,091$27.810.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$27.380.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$22.870.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$21.700.2%00.4—
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$20.220.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 7,692$19.870.1%10.2—
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 6,667$19.650.2%10.3—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 10,000$19.440.1%10.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$18.870.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$18.850.2%10.4—
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 6,667$18.490.2%00.3—
AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$15.840.1%10.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$14.190.1%00.3—
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$14.070.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 8,333$13.750.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$12.160.1%10.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$11.500.1%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$11.350.1%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$11.350.1%10.3—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$11.190.1%10.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 5,556$11.100.1%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$11.050.1%00.2—
AUG | Carved Jade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 5,882$10.170.1%00.3—
MP7 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$9.960.1%00.4—
AUG | Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 6,667$9.750.1%10.3—
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$9.570.1%10.2—
AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$8.350.1%10.3—
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$8.000.0%10.2—
M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 8,333$7.910.1%30.2—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 552$7.760.8%13.50.29×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,075$7.670.4%21.81.13×
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 5,556$7.660.1%10.3—
Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 870$7.490.5%22.20.91×
AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,174$7.390.2%10.9—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$6.420.0%60.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 645$6.070.5%123.04.05×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 10,000$6.020.0%00.2—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 150$5.892.1%612.70.47×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 3,125$5.550.1%70.6—
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 535$5.370.5%63.61.68×
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 735$5.340.4%52.61.92×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 400$5.190.7%104.82.09×
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 254$5.131.1%77.50.93×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 552$4.900.5%13.50.29×
MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 439$4.790.6%64.41.38×
AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 248$4.601.0%47.70.52×
AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,389$4.590.2%51.43.64×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 840$4.580.3%62.32.64×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 448$4.430.5%94.32.11×
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 272$4.340.9%67.00.86×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 309$4.270.8%56.20.81×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 256$4.160.9%97.41.21×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 209$4.151.1%39.10.33×
AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 215$4.111.0%58.90.56×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 342$4.080.6%125.62.15×
AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 350$4.020.6%35.50.55×
Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 269$3.980.8%37.10.42×
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 133$3.961.6%1114.30.77×
AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 152$3.831.4%1212.50.96×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 200$3.380.9%139.61.36×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 120$3.251.5%2315.91.45×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 96$3.221.8%1319.80.66×
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 78$3.112.2%2124.30.86×
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 153$2.981.1%1812.51.44×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 84$2.801.8%1522.70.66×
XM1014 | Ziggy (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 72$2.682.0%2126.60.79×
Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 83$2.401.6%2322.91.01×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 94$2.321.3%2920.31.43×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 77$2.261.6%2124.70.85×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 88$2.161.3%2121.60.97×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 119$2.121.0%2716.01.69×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 144$2.090.8%2013.31.51×
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 101$2.061.1%1518.90.79×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 84$2.061.3%1722.80.75×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 132$2.050.8%2014.41.39×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF1 in 146$2.030.8%1813.11.37×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 109$1.890.9%2117.61.20×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 95$1.851.1%3920.11.94×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 86$1.821.1%2122.20.95×
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Well-Worn)weapon · 31 in 79$1.771.2%3824.11.58×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 92$1.751.0%2320.71.11×
Negev | Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 84$1.651.1%2422.71.06×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 67$1.511.2%3428.41.20×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 68$1.441.2%2128.20.75×
MP7 | Powercore (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 50$1.421.5%3338.20.86×
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 62$1.401.2%3730.81.20×
XM1014 | Ziggy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 89$1.370.8%3321.51.54×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 96$1.340.8%3320.01.65×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 97$1.290.7%1719.70.86×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec1 in 86$1.280.8%2422.21.08×
XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 73$1.210.9%3926.31.48×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 78$1.200.8%1124.40.45×
XM1014 | Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 74$1.180.9%2325.90.89×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 69$1.180.9%2227.50.80×
Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 64$1.161.0%2930.00.97×
P90 | Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 71$1.110.8%1926.90.71×
MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 54$1.011.0%3135.40.88×
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 40$0.981.3%3348.20.68×
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 34$0.841.3%4955.70.88×
Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 30$0.681.2%6864.41.06×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 33$0.641.0%6957.11.21×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 27$0.631.3%6270.60.88×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 35$0.600.9%5254.90.95×
MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 65$0.570.5%1129.30.38×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 72$0.550.4%2426.70.90×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 79$0.540.4%3924.31.61×
MP9 | Bioleak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 85$0.530.3%3622.51.60×
Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 86$0.490.3%4022.21.81×
Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 87$0.470.3%3322.01.50×
MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 78$0.440.3%2624.51.06×
Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 68$0.440.4%3528.31.24×
MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 77$0.430.3%4824.81.94×
P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 84$0.410.3%3022.71.32×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 84$0.380.2%2222.70.97×
MP9 | Bioleak (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 61$0.370.3%1931.50.60×
P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 75$0.360.3%2325.30.91×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 73$0.350.3%826.10.31×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Bioleak (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon1 in 79$0.340.2%5024.02.08×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 65$0.320.3%1029.30.34×
P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 53$0.290.3%2935.90.81×
UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 37$0.160.2%051.80.00×
UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 41$0.160.2%047.10.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/accept, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.07%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$2.0092.07%148
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$2.0092.00%148
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$2.0092.00%148
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$2.0092.09%148
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$2.0092.00%148
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$2.0092.00%148
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$2.0092.00%148
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$2.0092.04%148
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$2.0092.02%148
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$2.0092.06%148
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$2.0092.00%148
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$2.0092.00%148
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$2.0092.00%148
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$2.0092.00%148
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$2.0092.03%148
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$2.0092.08%148
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$2.0092.04%148
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$2.0092.10%148
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$2.0092.07%148
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$2.0092.00%148
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$2.0092.00%148
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$2.0092.09%148
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$2.0092.02%148
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$2.0092.00%148
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$2.0092.05%148
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$2.0092.03%148
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$2.0092.08%148
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$2.0092.09%148
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$2.0092.09%148
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$2.0092.00%148
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.3%covert 0.3%Mythical 7.7%restricted 21.8%Rare 5.8%milspec 13.4%Classified 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%Restricted 6.2%mil spec 8.3%#8847ff 4.8%violet 8.5%blue 6.7%Mil Spec Grade 1.1%#8847FF 0.7%Mil Spec 2.6%#4b69ff 4.4%other 1.3%industrial 5.2%best hit $209 (104.4x)