gambatracker
Live
Big wins
Money Coming 30000$2,60252.00xWaylanders Forge$2,59634.61xPrivé Lounge Baccarat 1$200K2.00xBlackjack$1,3362.00xBig Bass Halloween Splash 1000$151100.3xStake Roulette$2,0871.43xStake Roulette$5,4051.26xBlack Out$1,05638.02xDuck Hunters$41.84209.2xSugar Rush 1000$1,38113.78xBet Stacker Blackjack 2$1,3011.82xPrivé Lounge 1$2,0002.00xKeno$1,65015.00xMines$1,38512.38xCase Battles$1,5801.69xSalon Privé Blackjack A$19.1K2.00xGates of Olympus 1000$150100.0xKeno$1,393350.0xBlackjack$1,3362.00xONE Blackjack$2,5172.00xPrivé Lounge Baccarat 1$300K2.00xKeno$1,2008.00xCases$39.11205.8xBlackjack$1,3362.00x

Afterparty

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$1.19
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $1.09 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.35%
1,605 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
112.34%±11.92295 openings
7 days
110.67%±5.371,448 openings
30 days
110.35%±5.111,605 openings
since tracking started
110.35%±5.111,605 openings
91.5%108.3%125.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.24% – 115.45%, 1,605 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h295112.34%±11.9+3.3σodds
7d1,448110.67%±5.37+6.8σodds
30d1,605110.35%±5.11+7.0σodds
All1,605110.35%±5.11+7.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,605 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 5,263$10.180.2%00.3—
AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 7,143$9.940.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$9.180.1%20.2—
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 9,091$9.130.1%20.2—
CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$7.380.1%10.3—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 245$6.942.6%46.50.61×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 6,250$6.340.1%70.3—
Sawed-Off | Devourer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$5.990.1%70.3—
AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 83$5.566.1%1319.40.67×
P90 | Attack Vector (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 67$5.417.3%1623.80.67×
P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 89$3.473.6%2918.11.60×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 44$3.146.6%4836.81.31×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 47$3.076.0%3434.30.99×
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 34$3.038.3%6447.91.34×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 32$2.035.8%6450.01.28×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 29$1.976.2%6955.11.25×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 24$1.606.0%10665.81.61×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 19$1.557.5%10784.61.27×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet1 in 21$1.215.3%10576.81.37×
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 17$0.975.1%12192.61.31×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 15$0.865.2%139106.41.31×
Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 13$0.674.6%140121.51.15×
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 12$0.473.4%167129.01.29×
Nova | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 13$0.423.0%192125.01.54×
M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 11$0.332.7%168142.51.18×
P90 | Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 12$0.201.6%0137.70.00×
Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 15$0.191.2%0110.00.00×
MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 13$0.181.2%0119.60.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/afterparty, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violetCabiseeek$1.19$1.191.00x
Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedтруп коня$1.19$1.981.66x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffтруп коня$1.19$1.571.32x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffтруп коня$1.19$0.980.82x
Nova | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · Commonтруп коня$1.19$0.430.36x
Nova | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · CommonONETAP[ARIZA]$1.19$0.430.36x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violetONETAP[ARIZA]$1.19$1.191.00x
M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)weapon · industrialONETAP[ARIZA]$1.19$0.330.28x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedONETAP[ARIZA]$1.19$0.850.71x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedmekthereal$1.19$0.850.71x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$1.1992.00%28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$1.1992.00%28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$1.1992.07%28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.1992.08%28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.1992.00%28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.1992.00%28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.1992.00%28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$1.1992.00%28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$1.1992.06%28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$1.1992.06%28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$1.1992.09%28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$1.1992.08%28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$1.1992.00%28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$1.1992.00%28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$1.1992.01%28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$1.1992.00%28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$1.1992.08%28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$1.1992.00%28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$1.1992.00%28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$1.1992.00%28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$1.1992.02%28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.1992.07%28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$1.1992.00%28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.1992.00%28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$1.1992.09%28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$1.1992.00%28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$1.1992.00%28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.1992.00%28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$1.1992.00%28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$1.1992.04%28
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#d32ce6 0.0%Classified 0.0%classified 0.4%pink 1.2%restricted 18.3%uncommon 1.5%#d32ee6 1.1%Restricted 2.3%milspec 13.8%#8847ff 9.9%violet 12.8%Mythical 7.6%Common 7.8%industrial 8.9%Uncommon 6.9%blue 7.5%best hit —