Aug

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$3.61

Advertised RTP

92.06%

EV $3.32 from 122 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.35%

239 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

93.14%±20.42190 openings

30 days

86.35%±18.20239 openings

since tracking started

86.35%±18.20239 openings

-0.5%84.3%169.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	82.05%±86.5	—	odds
7d	190	93.14%±20.4	+0.1σ	odds
30d	239	86.35%±18.2	−0.6σ	odds
All	239	86.35%±18.2	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values122 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 239 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$125	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$99.97	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,448	$89.79	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$89.18	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$86.64	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$86.08	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$83.68	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$80.57	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$51.67	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,613	$48.18	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,064	$31.63	0.9%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$30.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 943	$27.63	0.9%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 833	$25.37	0.9%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,087	$24.69	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 877	$23.87	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$23.57	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 870	$20.42	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,571	$19.97	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 730	$19.84	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 575	$19.47	1.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$18.63	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$17.97	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 543	$15.98	0.9%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 826	$14.14	0.5%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 289	$13.51	1.4%	0	0.8	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 370	$13.38	1.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Torque (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 459	$13.35	0.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,053	$13.33	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$13.29	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$13.24	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,882	$13.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,493	$13.05	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$13.04	0.3%	1	0.2	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$12.94	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 990	$12.83	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$12.32	0.1%	1	0.1	—
AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 649	$12.31	0.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 556	$12.20	0.7%	1	0.4	—
AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 469	$11.99	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 515	$11.24	0.7%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 433	$10.81	0.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 281	$10.49	1.1%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Torque (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 329	$10.36	0.9%	0	0.7	—
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 304	$10.27	1.0%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 457	$10.26	0.7%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 524	$10.18	0.6%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 474	$10.17	0.6%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 699	$9.75	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 518	$9.71	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 398	$9.31	0.7%	1	0.6	—
AUG \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 233	$9.27	1.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 233	$8.63	1.1%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 229	$8.10	1.1%	1	1.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 188	$7.91	1.3%	2	1.3	1.57×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$7.83	1.4%	3	1.4	2.09×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 172	$7.66	1.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 202	$7.44	1.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 242	$7.32	0.9%	1	1.0	—
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 156	$6.44	1.2%	1	1.5	0.65×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 164	$6.35	1.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 131	$5.96	1.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 114	$5.93	1.6%	1	2.1	0.48×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 114	$5.93	1.6%	4	2.1	1.91×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 166	$5.80	1.1%	1	1.4	0.70×
AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$5.56	1.0%	1	1.5	0.67×
AUG \| Torque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 211	$5.34	0.8%	2	1.1	1.77×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 145	$5.15	1.1%	4	1.6	2.43×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 145	$5.15	1.1%	2	1.7	1.21×
AUG \| Condemned (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 171	$5.15	0.9%	5	1.4	3.57×
AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 122	$4.92	1.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 147	$4.75	1.0%	1	1.6	0.62×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 160	$4.59	0.9%	2	1.5	1.34×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 116	$4.58	1.2%	4	2.1	1.95×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 130	$4.54	1.0%	4	1.8	2.18×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 139	$4.50	1.0%	3	1.7	1.74×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 177	$4.24	0.7%	2	1.4	1.48×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 139	$4.09	0.9%	3	1.7	1.74×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 94	$4.05	1.3%	3	2.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 87	$3.90	1.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 103	$3.89	1.1%	2	2.3	0.86×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 106	$3.79	1.1%	3	2.3	1.33×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn)weapon · 4	1 in 90	$3.72	1.2%	5	2.6	1.89×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 84	$3.57	1.3%	1	2.8	0.35×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$3.56	1.4%	2	3.2	0.62×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 64	$3.48	1.6%	1	3.7	0.27×
AUG \| Plague (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 51	$2.95	1.7%	5	4.6	1.08×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 54	$2.75	1.5%	5	4.4	1.14×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 43	$2.59	1.8%	7	5.5	1.27×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 36	$2.55	2.1%	6	6.6	0.91×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 56	$2.53	1.4%	3	4.3	0.70×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$2.15	1.0%	5	3.9	1.29×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 62	$2.15	1.0%	6	3.8	1.56×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 69	$2.14	0.9%	2	3.5	0.58×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 61	$1.95	1.0%	4	3.9	1.02×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$1.89	1.1%	3	4.6	0.66×
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 71	$1.88	0.8%	2	3.4	0.59×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 68	$1.85	0.8%	2	3.5	0.57×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$1.83	0.5%	2	2.4	0.84×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$1.81	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$1.80	0.6%	4	2.7	1.46×
AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 96	$1.73	0.5%	7	2.5	2.82×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$1.70	0.6%	2	2.8	0.70×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 72	$1.60	0.7%	4	3.3	1.20×
AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 59	$1.56	0.8%	3	4.0	0.75×
AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 58	$1.47	0.8%	5	4.1	1.21×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$1.34	0.8%	4	4.8	0.83×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$1.33	0.8%	4	4.5	0.88×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 47	$1.32	0.8%	3	5.1	0.59×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$1.30	0.8%	6	4.9	1.22×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 56	$1.02	0.6%	6	4.3	1.40×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 46	$1.01	0.7%	4	5.2	0.77×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 37	$0.95	0.8%	2	6.4	0.31×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 31	$0.84	0.8%	8	7.8	1.03×
AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 52	$0.77	0.4%	8	4.6	1.74×
AUG \| Plague (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 42	$0.70	0.5%	5	5.6	0.89×
AUG \| Tom Cat (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 38	$0.61	0.5%	8	6.2	1.28×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$0.54	0.4%	5	5.6	0.89×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$0.52	0.4%	9	5.5	1.63×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 47	$0.51	0.3%	5	5.1	0.98×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 51	$0.47	0.3%	6	4.7	1.29×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$0.34	0.2%	4	4.7	0.85×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/aug, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AUG | Triqua (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RareLOM$3.61$0.520.14x3h

AUG | Plague (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec GradeLOM$3.61$2.940.81x3h

StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLOM$3.61$4.031.12x3h

StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RareLOM$3.61$1.340.37x3h

AUG | Plague (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec GradeLOM$3.61$2.940.81x3h

StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLOM$3.61$1.020.28x3h

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLOM$3.61$10.462.90x3h

StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLOM$3.61$0.840.23x3h

AUG | Plague (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Gradeпарень АРБУЗНОГО$3.61$2.950.82x15h

StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecNexXxi$3.61$2.580.71x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$3.61	92.06%	122
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	122
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$3.61	92.08%	122
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$3.61	91.99%	122
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$3.61	92.06%	122
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.61	92.01%	122
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$3.61	92.08%	122
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	122
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	122
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.61	92.07%	122
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.61	92.09%	122
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	122
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.61	92.05%	122
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$3.61	92.05%	122
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	122
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.61	92.08%	122
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.61	91.99%	122
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	122

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed4 1.1%covert 0.1%red 0.0%classified 12.4%Rare 4.5%pink 1.4%mil spec 10.0%#d32ee6 1.1%restricted 15.1%Legendary 2.3%milspec 23.7%#d32ce6 0.2%Classified 0.5%industrial 5.3%#87c7ff 0.6%#8847ff 4.8%Mil Spec Grade 2.6%Restricted 2.5%uncommon 1.6%Mythical 3.1%violet 2.7%#4b69ff 4.3%best hit —