Battle Scarred

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$169.17

Advertised RTP

79.75%

EV $134.92 from 101 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.61%

460 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59 openings · below min

7 days

86.63%±8.64299 openings

30 days

86.61%±6.97460 openings

since tracking started

86.61%±6.97460 openings

77.5%98.0%118.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	59	98.49%±19.3	—	odds
7d	299	86.63%±8.64	+1.6σ	odds
30d	460	86.61%±6.97	+1.9σ	odds
All	460	86.61%±6.97	+1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values101 items · odds summed to 0.9895, rescaled · observed counts over 460 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 231	$849	2.7%	6	2.0	2.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 145	$623	3.2%	4	3.2	1.25×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$555	2.9%	5	3.2	1.55×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 169	$529	2.3%	3	2.8	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 231	$505	1.6%	5	2.0	2.49×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 282	$503	1.3%	2	1.7	1.21×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 265	$421	1.2%	1	1.8	0.57×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 262	$420	1.2%	3	1.8	1.69×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 177	$420	1.8%	3	2.6	1.14×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$400	1.7%	0	2.7	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 207	$377	1.4%	2	2.2	0.89×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 288	$375	1.0%	4	1.6	2.48×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 238	$371	1.2%	1	2.0	0.51×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 204	$369	1.4%	2	2.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$365	0.8%	1	1.4	0.72×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 215	$352	1.2%	2	2.2	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 196	$350	1.3%	5	2.4	2.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 198	$328	1.2%	2	2.3	0.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$319	1.4%	3	2.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 108	$302	2.1%	2	4.3	0.46×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 133	$298	1.7%	4	3.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 110	$278	1.9%	6	4.2	1.42×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$277	1.8%	2	4.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 136	$241	1.3%	6	3.4	1.76×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 118	$239	1.5%	4	3.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 143	$239	1.3%	5	3.3	1.54×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 86	$234	2.0%	2	5.4	0.37×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 231	$233	0.8%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 212	$231	0.8%	4	2.2	1.83×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 182	$225	0.9%	1	2.6	0.39×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 155	$222	1.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$219	1.0%	2	2.9	0.69×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 161	$207	1.0%	4	2.9	1.38×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 142	$198	1.0%	4	3.3	1.22×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 150	$197	1.0%	1	3.1	0.32×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 115	$190	1.2%	1	4.0	0.25×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 132	$189	1.1%	5	3.5	1.42×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 329	$188	0.4%	3	1.4	2.12×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 171	$186	0.8%	3	2.7	1.10×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 239	$181	0.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 208	$180	0.6%	2	2.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 192	$179	0.7%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 179	$175	0.7%	1	2.6	0.38×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 207	$175	0.6%	1	2.2	0.44×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 306	$173	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 267	$169	0.5%	3	1.7	1.72×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 182	$169	0.7%	1	2.5	0.39×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 181	$167	0.7%	6	2.6	2.33×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 146	$166	0.9%	4	3.2	1.26×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 175	$166	0.7%	2	2.7	0.75×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 142	$162	0.9%	3	3.3	0.91×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$151	1.0%	3	4.0	0.74×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 86	$146	1.3%	6	5.4	1.11×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$141	1.3%	5	5.9	0.84×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$134	1.3%	4	6.1	0.65×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$133	1.2%	2	5.7	0.35×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$132	1.1%	5	5.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$128	0.9%	3	4.5	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 171	$125	0.5%	3	2.7	1.11×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 124	$119	0.7%	4	3.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 120	$117	0.7%	5	3.9	1.30×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 106	$113	0.8%	5	4.4	1.14×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$113	0.9%	4	4.9	0.82×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 113	$112	0.7%	5	4.1	1.22×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 166	$109	0.5%	3	2.8	1.07×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 160	$107	0.5%	4	2.9	1.37×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 117	$106	0.7%	2	4.0	0.50×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 158	$102	0.5%	2	2.9	0.68×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 205	$100	0.4%	3	2.3	1.33×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 226	$99.39	0.3%	3	2.1	1.46×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 123	$99.18	0.6%	4	3.8	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 318	$98.94	0.2%	2	1.5	1.37×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 211	$98.55	0.3%	3	2.2	1.36×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$97.41	0.4%	4	2.5	1.62×
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 224	$94.65	0.3%	3	2.1	1.44×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 258	$92.24	0.3%	2	1.8	1.11×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 117	$90.45	0.6%	4	4.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 114	$87.53	0.6%	8	4.1	1.96×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 93	$85.76	0.7%	2	5.0	0.40×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 102	$84.77	0.6%	6	4.5	1.32×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 117	$81.68	0.5%	1	4.0	0.25×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 99	$79.21	0.6%	5	4.7	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 93	$78.03	0.6%	3	5.0	0.60×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$75.85	0.5%	8	4.5	1.79×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 70	$73.85	0.8%	6	6.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 86	$73.64	0.6%	11	5.4	2.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 74	$73.02	0.7%	10	6.3	1.59×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 56	$69.36	0.9%	8	8.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 45	$66.18	1.1%	9	10.4	0.86×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 41	$56.34	1.0%	12	11.4	1.06×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$51.69	1.1%	13	13.4	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$48.57	1.0%	20	13.0	1.53×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 29	$42.79	1.1%	14	16.1	0.87×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$41.64	0.8%	12	11.8	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 43	$41.02	0.7%	6	10.7	0.56×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 43	$38.15	0.7%	18	10.8	1.66×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 44	$35.23	0.6%	11	10.6	1.04×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 39	$33.34	0.6%	17	11.9	1.43×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 32	$32.78	0.8%	6	14.6	0.41×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$32.31	0.8%	10	15.3	0.65×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$17.85	0.5%	13	19.0	0.69×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/battle-scarred, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertcat$169$8545.05x22h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$8475.01x1h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertPaNaiT◄PnT►$169$8414.97x2d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertsercantall$169$8404.97x2d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertsuutei tsai$169$8024.74x7d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertsercantall$169$6283.71x2d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertZeleniy$169$6243.69x7d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$6193.66x1h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$6193.66x1h

CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$31.940.19x1h

★ Bayonet | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$1871.11x1h

P250 | Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$41.590.25x1h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$37.930.22x1h

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$1881.11x1h

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$5553.28x1h

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$37.930.22x1h

M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$1340.79x1h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · CovertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$169$1100.65x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 79.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$169	79.75%	101
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$169	79.36%	101
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$169	80.13%	101
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$169	80.21%	101
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$169	78.66%	101
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$169	80.00%	101
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$169	79.36%	101
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$169	79.97%	101
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$169	79.15%	101
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$169	79.76%	101
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$169	79.66%	101
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$169	79.65%	101
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$169	79.68%	101
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$169	79.89%	101
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$169	78.99%	101
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$169	80.47%	101
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$169	79.85%	101
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$169	79.46%	101
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$169	78.96%	101
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$169	79.58%	101
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$169	79.88%	101
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$169	80.33%	101
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$169	80.13%	101
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$169	80.54%	101
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$169	79.85%	101
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$169	80.32%	101
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$169	78.59%	101
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$169	79.27%	101
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$169	79.84%	101
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$169	80.17%	101

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 46.2%restricted 0.4%classified 18.6%Covert 6.3%covert knife 0.6%extraordinary 16.6%mil spec 2.5%#d32ee6 0.9%red 0.5%#4b69ff 0.4%Mil Spec Grade 1.1%Legendary 2.4%Ancient 2.3%best hit $854 (5.05x)