BearBrick

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$9.00

Advertised RTP

91.92%

EV $8.27 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.77%

1,284 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.44%±12.39148 openings

7 days

90.52%±4.641,064 openings

30 days

90.77%±4.221,284 openings

since tracking started

90.77%±4.221,284 openings

80.5%93.5%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	148	93.44%±12.4	+0.2σ	odds
7d	1,064	90.52%±4.64	−0.6σ	odds
30d	1,284	90.77%±4.22	−0.5σ	odds
All	1,284	90.77%±4.22	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,285 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 32	$30.40	11.5%	36	40.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 37	$26.20	8.7%	34	35.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 42	$25.44	7.4%	38	30.7	1.24×
P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$14.09	5.8%	33	43.9	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$13.42	5.2%	35	41.0	0.85×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$13.23	6.0%	47	47.9	0.98×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$12.23	5.7%	48	49.1	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$11.64	2.6%	26	23.3	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$11.27	2.3%	24	21.8	1.10×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$11.10	3.0%	34	28.4	1.20×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$10.27	3.1%	29	31.9	0.91×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$9.58	2.8%	28	31.2	0.90×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$8.20	3.0%	42	39.5	1.06×
'Two Times' McCoy \| TACP Cavalryagent · superior	1 in 39	$7.65	2.4%	38	33.2	1.14×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$7.38	3.4%	32	48.7	0.66×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$7.35	3.0%	39	42.9	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$7.12	2.1%	31	31.7	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 38	$6.38	2.0%	42	33.8	1.24×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 34	$6.29	2.3%	37	38.1	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$6.15	2.4%	44	42.0	1.05×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 23	$5.27	2.7%	51	55.3	0.92×
MP7 \| Vault Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 22	$4.75	2.6%	53	57.6	0.92×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 19	$3.03	2.0%	72	69.5	1.04×
FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 15	$2.93	2.3%	88	83.4	1.06×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 15	$2.75	2.2%	80	83.9	0.95×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$2.40	2.0%	100	89.2	1.12×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 21	$2.05	1.2%	61	60.2	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.32	0.6%	63	51.6	1.22×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/bearbrick, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedMariskaa$9.00$2.370.26x48m

AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec GradeMariskaa$9.00$3.030.34x48m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · RestrictedCabiseeek$9.00$2.040.23x49m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · RestrictedMatie`Bal$9.00$2.040.23x1h

FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffUrpa2k19$9.00$2.920.32x1h

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified♛ 𝕂𝕖𝕟𝕥 ♛$9.00$5.250.58x1h

SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified♛ 𝕂𝕖𝕟𝕥 ♛$9.00$9.561.06x1h

P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedfu4ik$9.00$12.271.36x3h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violetStuntCoordinator$9.00$1.320.15x3h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedDopexsoudie00$9.00$7.120.79x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$9.00	91.92%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$9.00	91.93%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$9.00	91.96%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$9.00	91.93%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$9.00	91.90%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$9.00	91.93%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$9.00	91.91%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$9.00	91.90%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$9.00	91.91%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$9.00	91.95%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$9.00	91.91%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$9.00	91.93%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$9.00	91.91%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$9.00	91.93%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$9.00	91.94%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$9.00	91.93%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$9.00	91.97%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$9.00	91.91%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$9.00	91.92%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$9.00	91.93%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$9.00	91.92%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$9.00	92.00%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#eb4b4b 5.9%covert 2.4%classified 25.6%restricted 15.8%Mil Spec Grade 8.5%superior 2.6%Legendary 5.9%#d32ee6 3.0%Classified 4.3%Uncommon 4.5%#8847ff 6.5%Rare 6.5%Restricted 4.7%violet 4.0%best hit —