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Bloody Mary

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$0.49
Advertised RTP
92.09%
EV $0.45 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
131.91%
55.7K openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
130.34%±3.165,572 openings
7 days
131.14%±1.0647.1K openings
30 days
131.91%±0.9855.7K openings
since tracking started
131.91%±0.9855.7K openings
91.5%112.8%134.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (130.94% – 132.89%, 55,722 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5,572130.34%±3.16+23.8σodds
7d47.1K131.14%±1.06+72.6σodds
30d55.7K131.91%±0.98+79.9σodds
All55.7K131.91%±0.98+79.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 7,143$11.750.4%77.80.90×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$9.930.2%195.63.41×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 5,263$9.740.4%3410.63.21×
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 10,000$6.530.1%1615.628.89×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 980$5.061.1%19756.83.47×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 113$4.108.0%428491.50.87×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 93$2.796.7%883601.31.47×
AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 129$1.843.2%1,131430.82.63×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 63$1.244.4%1,652883.81.87×
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 44$0.934.7%2,1461279.51.68×
Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 37$0.794.8%2,4721519.71.63×
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 48$0.753.5%2,9471163.62.53×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 40$0.713.9%2,5811385.41.86×
P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 45$0.693.4%2,3481245.51.89×
P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 55$0.612.5%2,0591022.12.01×
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 61$0.582.1%2,021916.72.20×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 49$0.552.5%2,2361138.51.96×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 39$0.553.1%1,9931421.11.40×
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 39$0.502.8%2,3321419.41.64×
Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 38$0.462.7%2,9941480.72.02×
AUG | Triqua (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 35$0.382.4%2,6741600.51.67×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$0.373.1%3,1222121.61.47×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 31$0.362.6%2,6681790.01.49×
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 28$0.342.7%3,2992004.51.65×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 28$0.342.7%3,1261960.01.59×
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 31$0.322.3%1,9761815.11.09×
SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 35$0.322.0%3,0351597.21.90×
M4A4 | Dark Operative (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 30$0.312.3%3,0081861.31.62×
M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 28$0.272.2%2,1282016.21.06×
MP9 | Broken Record (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 23$0.252.5%02476.60.00×
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 16$0.212.9%03512.00.00×
M4A4 | Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 15$0.213.1%03653.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 15$0.192.9%513840.80.01×
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 13$0.183.1%04310.00.00×
M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 12$0.152.8%04682.80.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/bloody-mary-helloween, 12 Nov, 02:50 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkMary Jane$0.49$2.685.47x
M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · RareMary Jane$0.49$0.290.59x
AUG | Triqua (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareMary Jane$0.49$0.380.78x
Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMary Jane$0.49$0.330.67x
AUG | Triqua (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareĎē®śkįĵ Ӎǻůs$0.49$0.380.78x
P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetbRAZA$0.49$0.691.41x
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violetbRAZA$0.49$0.491.00x
AUG | Triqua (Minimal Wear)weapon · RarebRAZA$0.49$0.380.78x
SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blueVLTN ☼$0.49$0.430.88x
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalVLTN ☼$0.49$0.571.16x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.09%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
12 Nov, 02:50 UTC$0.4992.09%35
11 Nov, 20:46 UTC$0.4992.00%35
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC$0.4992.00%35
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$0.4992.00%35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$0.4992.00%35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$0.4992.00%35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$0.4992.00%35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$0.4992.00%35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$0.4992.00%35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$0.4992.00%35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$0.4992.00%35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$0.4992.00%35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$0.4992.00%35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$0.4992.04%35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$0.4992.02%35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$0.4992.00%35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$0.4992.00%35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$0.4992.06%35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$0.4992.06%35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$0.4992.00%35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$0.4992.00%35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$0.4992.00%35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$0.4992.09%35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$0.4992.00%35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$0.4992.00%35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$0.4992.00%35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$0.4992.00%35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$0.4992.00%35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$0.4992.00%35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$0.4992.09%35
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 1.1%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.1%#d32ee6 0.9%restricted 6.3%violet 9.1%Mythical 6.9%uncommon 2.5%#4b69ff 16.9%Rare 17.5%milspec 14.3%blue 21.2%mil spec 3.3%best hit —