Bonus

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$21.35

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $19.64 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.37%

1,451 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

105.83%±14.80146 openings

7 days

87.78%±4.951,310 openings

30 days

87.37%±4.711,451 openings

since tracking started

87.37%±4.711,451 openings

82.0%101.8%121.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	146	105.83%±14.8	+1.8σ	odds
7d	1,310	87.78%±4.95	−1.7σ	odds
30d	1,451	87.37%±4.71	−1.9σ	odds
All	1,451	87.37%±4.71	−1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,451 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 329	$96.43	1.5%	4	4.4	0.91×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 246	$96.13	2.0%	2	5.9	0.34×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 172	$92.52	2.7%	4	8.5	0.47×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 246	$91.33	1.9%	5	5.9	0.85×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$90.46	2.3%	5	7.4	0.68×
Charm \| Lil' Boocharm · Ancient	1 in 206	$88.45	2.2%	3	7.1	0.43×
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 187	$87.76	2.4%	5	7.7	0.65×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 134	$76.00	2.9%	7	10.9	0.64×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 170	$62.78	1.9%	16	8.5	1.88×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$62.09	3.3%	11	15.0	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 119	$59.38	2.5%	16	12.2	1.32×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 93	$51.88	2.8%	12	15.6	0.77×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$48.69	2.3%	8	13.4	0.60×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$44.45	2.8%	14	18.0	0.78×
Sir Bloody Darryl Royale \| The Professionalsagent · Ancient	1 in 72	$43.27	3.1%	20	20.3	0.99×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 77	$40.61	2.7%	20	18.9	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$40.47	2.6%	25	18.4	1.36×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 76	$39.63	2.7%	20	19.1	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$36.07	2.8%	23	22.3	1.03×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$30.16	2.4%	20	22.4	0.89×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 55	$30.04	2.8%	27	26.4	1.02×
M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 42	$24.87	3.0%	35	34.4	1.02×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$24.74	3.1%	33	35.2	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$23.21	2.5%	34	30.9	1.10×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 42	$23.19	2.8%	14	34.4	0.41×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 63	$23.14	1.9%	36	23.1	1.56×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 46	$21.91	2.4%	28	31.5	0.89×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$21.44	1.9%	27	25.7	1.05×
Crasswater The Forgotten \| Guerrilla Warfareagent · master	1 in 40	$18.78	2.4%	38	36.5	1.04×
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$18.08	2.8%	48	44.5	1.08×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$14.19	2.5%	55	49.8	1.10×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$13.83	3.0%	69	61.8	1.12×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$13.23	2.8%	68	59.9	1.14×
Chem-Haz Specialist \| SWATagent · blue	1 in 20	$10.33	2.6%	64	73.1	0.88×
FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$9.89	2.0%	65	57.3	1.13×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 22	$8.96	2.1%	61	65.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| ISOxo, inhumanmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 19	$8.32	2.3%	66	78.2	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 23	$8.27	1.8%	93	63.0	1.48×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$6.15	1.5%	70	71.6	0.98×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$5.97	1.6%	79	77.0	1.03×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 16	$4.95	1.6%	88	91.5	0.96×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$1.93	0.8%	113	117.8	0.96×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/bonus-ggdrop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryL4he$T$21.35$6.080.28x48m

USP-S | Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · RareL4he$T$21.35$1.880.09x48m

FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffL4he$T$21.35$9.700.45x57m

Chem-Haz Specialist | SWATagent · blueL4he$T$21.35$10.190.48x1h

M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffL4he$T$21.35$8.240.39x1h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pinkL4he$T$21.35$8.810.41x1h

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertL4he$T$21.35$61.722.89x1h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | ISOxo, inhumanmusic kit · High GradeL4he$T$21.35$8.340.39x1h

Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedL4he$T$21.35$35.451.66x1h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pinkL4he$T$21.35$8.810.41x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$21.35	91.96%	42
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$21.35	91.94%	42
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$21.35	91.90%	42
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$21.35	91.90%	42
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$21.35	91.94%	42
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$21.35	91.99%	42
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$21.35	91.90%	42
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$21.35	91.93%	42
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$21.35	91.98%	42
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$21.35	91.98%	42
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$21.35	91.99%	42
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$21.35	91.90%	42
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$21.35	91.98%	42
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$21.35	91.93%	42
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$21.35	91.94%	42
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$21.35	91.92%	42
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$21.35	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$21.35	91.90%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.2%sunny 0.4%extraordinary 0.4%Ancient 1.9%rare 8.0%red 2.1%classified 14.5%#d32ce6 2.4%pink 14.4%Legendary 6.5%master 2.5%blue 8.1%restricted 3.4%#4b69ff 3.9%High Grade 5.4%#8847ff 4.3%uncommon 6.3%Rare 8.1%best hit —